Conclave: Odds remain high against an African pope

The death of Pope Francis has reignited fresh hopes for the first African leader to be installed at the helm of the Catholic Church. However, there are reasons to believe that their time has not quite come yet.

Cardinal Peter Kodwo Appiah Turkson was a close confidante of the late pope — but can he follow in his footsteps?© Pacific Press Agency/IMAGO

Catholics around the world have gathered to mourn the passing of Pope Francis. The head of the Catholic Church, who had died in Rome on Easter Monday aged 88, was widely known as “the people’s pope” during his 12-year papacy.

Many Catholics in Africa in particular have said that they felt a kinship with the late Argentinian-born pontiff, who preferred to lead a simple life rather than focusing on dramatic displays of the church’s global influence.

Across much of Nigeria, which has one of the highest Catholic populations on the continent, there appears to be a cloak of sadness and grief hanging over churches and cathedrals following joyful Easter celebrations on the weekend.

“He was a pope that I loved, so humble,” said Miranda Mosheshe in Lagos. “He did a whole lot for the Catholic faith all over the world.”

Mosheshe is one of many believers who told DW that the stakes for Francisä succession are high:

“I wish by the grace of God we’ll have another pope who will emulate his attributes — everything about him!”

Habemus Papam Africanii?

Nowhere in the world is the Catholic Church growing faster than it is in Africa. According to figures issued by the Vatican, Africans now account for 20 percent of Catholics worldwide.

Against this background, calls for an African pope to be elected to head the church have multiplied in recent years.

The so-called conclave — the gathering of 135 senior cardinals tasked with electing the next pontiff — is set to convene in early May, with some African names also featuring on the shortlist.

But has the time truly come for the first African pope?

During the conclave, each cardinal can put themselves or another cardinal’s name forward to fill the top position in the Catholic church. Like with any other leadership job, prior experience is often regarded as the key factor determining who ultimately wins the race.

While there are 18 cardinals from Africa who will be sequestered away during the upcoming conclave, two names from the continent have so far been cited to be among the potential frontrunners.

Peter Turkson: Ghana’s charismatic peacemaker

Among the shortlist for the next pope is Ghanaian Cardinal Peter Turkson. The long-time Archbishop of Cape Coast moved to Rome in 2009, where he became president of the Pontifical Council for Justice and Peace.

“There is some similarity in the personality of the pope and the cardinal Turkson,” says Sister Jacinta Tuoniba from Tamale, northern Ghana.

“The virtues of humility, simplicity, compassion, love for the poor and the needy, and especially compassion for the earth.”

Cardinal Peter Turkson, a Vatican insider, is considered a potential successor to Pope Francis© Vatican Media/ZUMA/IMAGO

Father Thaddeus Kuusah, a priest at the Archdiocese of Tamale, seconds these views:

“He definitely has all the attributes to lead the church,” Kuusah told DW. “[He’s s]omeone who has lived his life and worked for peace,” he adds, referring to Turkson’s mediation efforts with Ghana’s National Peace Council, especially in the contested elections of 2008.

“The Lord himself said: ‘Blessed are the peacemakers.’ We pray that His spirit will descend on the college of cardinals to chose somebody who is after the heart and mind of Christ to lead the church.”

Fridolin Ambongo: Congo’s vibrant church leader

Across Africa, there indeed is a need for more peacemakers — a sentiment that will not only resonate with Catholics.

In the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC), conflict has been rife for decades, highlighted once more by the bloody escalation of tensions between the government and M23 rebels in the country’s north in recent months.

With around 50 million members — about half the country’s population — the Catholic Church in the DRC is one of the biggest congregations in sub-Saharan Africa.

The country is also home to one of the most prominent figures in Catholicism in Africa: Cardinal Fridolin Ambongo Besungu, who heads the Symposium of Episcopal Conferences in Africa and Madagascar.

Besungu has served a confidante to Pope Francis for many years as part of the Council of Cardinal Advisers.

Cardinal Fridolin Ambongo, a regular at the Vatican, is arguably the most prominent voice of African Catholics© Maria Laura Antonelli/Avalon/picture alliance/Photoshot

However, there are notable differences between Francis and Cardinal Ambongo. Though he has been cited as holding some liberal positions like lobbying for equal opportunities for women, Ambongo was among those who criticized a papal decree by Francis in 2023, which would allow for the blessing of same-sex couples.

Speaking on behalf of the episcopal conferences of Africa, Ambongo declined to accept the decree, attracting a great deal of support across Africa— while Rome’s reaction to the revolt was notably more muted.

Donatien Nshole, General Secretary of the Episcopal Conference of the Democratic Republic of the Congo (CENCO), highlights that nevertheless the late pope’s relations with the DRC were always warm and amicable, marked by Francis’ unwavering support for peace in the Congo.

Nshole says he holds vivid memories of Pope Francis’ visit to Kinshasa in 2023, where he received a delegation from the restive North Kivu province as part of his efforts to establish understanding between warring factions in the country.

On the ground, there is great support for a potential bid by Cardinal Ambongo for the papacy: Hugues Tamfumu in Kinshasa told DW that this would amount to “a victory for Africans to show that Africa is capable of leading [the church].”

“All Christians would applaud him if he made it,” Tamfumu said.

An African pope for African needs?

For some Africans, it is exactly the fact that cardinals like Ambongo distance themselves from what many consider Euro-centric leadership.

Tamfumu, for one, says that Ambongo’s staunch rejection of same-sex blessings represents what Africans expect from their church:

“He said, ‘No, we Africans will not accept that.’ He was very clear.”

Yet, such a firm stance against homosexuality might be a disadvantage at the upcoming conclave next month, especially when there are such big shoes to fill; outside of Africa, the church’s reconciliatory steps under Francis have largely been welcome, with some senior church leaders even hinting that the late pope could even have pushed the envelope further.

Meanwhile, further up the pecking order of Catholics in Africa, there’s also a somewhat more reconciliatory rhetoric emerging on what could be in store for the church in future, albeit from a broader perspective.

Asked by DW about chances for an African pope, Nshole pointed out “there is room for everyone” in the Catholic church — and that the election of a new pontiff was not a competition “in terms of quotas, rotations, or race.”

Nshole believes that the most important thing was to get “a pope who is a shepherd at heart, whatever his origins.”

‘All options remain open’

Behind the scenes, however, experts remain sceptical of the chances of either Turkson or Ambongo making the cut. First there’s the issue of ageism:

At 76, Turkson might appear too old to some, while Ambongo, aged 65, might just be considered too young by others, who fear that the next pope could reign for decades on end.

Then there is also the issue of the church’s long-standing failure to fully and openly address countless cases of sexual abuse.

While there has been progress in this particularly painful chapter of the Catholic Church under Francis in Europe, North America and beyond, the subject still appears largely to be taboo in Africa.

Cardinals attending the conclave may hesitate to vote for a candidate whose position on this issue could be interpreted as soft or ambiguous — even if some might not exactly be looking for a Pope Francis II.

As it is, the decision on the next pope will be a difficult one, as it always has been. Alfred Adewale Martins, the Archbishop of Lagos, cautioned the church’s faithful to approach the conclave with any expectations at all.

Speaking to DW, Martins signaled that following the papacy of Francis, the question of finding a worthy successor might be more complicated than it has been in a long time:

“The fact that he himself chose cardinals from far-flung places is in itself an indication that it is possible for anyone from anywhere” to rise through the ranks of the Vatican, Martins explained.

“The diversity in Africa is certainly remarkable,” he added. “Nobody can gloss over that.”